The contingent nature of proximity voting: unravelling the interplay of party issue polarization and voters’ positional extremity

Abstract

Extant research argues that party issue polarization increases voters’ propensity to engage in proximity voting, but evidence is mixed. We argue that the extremity of voters’ issue positions affects the extent to which party polarization increases their inclination for proximity voting. We hypothesize that the extent to which issue proximity shapes voters’ choices is contingent on the extremity of a voter’s issue position: voters with extreme positions on an issue are more likely to engage in proximity voting, and party polarization exacerbates this difference. Using survey data on the impact of issue proximity on four issues in ten countries, we find that party issue polarization increases proximity voting overall, albeit only to a small extent. In addition, we find that voters’ positional extremity enhances proximity voting. In contrast, party issue polarization does not exacerbate the difference between voters with moderate and extreme issue positions in terms of proximity voting.