A comparison of α-Sutte Indicator and ARIMA methods in renewable energy forecasting in Indonesia

Abstract

Humans in this world are very dependent on petroleum and energy. Petroleum and other energies are a major source in supporting human life. Regarding the reduced petroleum availability, a new energy is needed to replace the role of petroleum. Nowadays, there is much renewable energy that have been discovered and used. The purpose of this research is to predict the total primary energy supply in Indonesia by using α-Sutte Indicator and ARIMA method, and comparing those four methods which are effective in predicting data. Data from the research is renewable energy (total primary energy supply) which is obtained from OECD from 1971-2015. From the research, it is found that the α-Sutte Indicator method is more suitable to predict renewable energy (total primary energy supply) data in Indonesia compared to ARIMA (0,1,0).