Probabilistic life cycle cost model for repairable system

Abstract

Traditionally, Life cycle cost (LCC) has been predicted in a deterministic approach, however; this method is not capable to consider the uncertainties in the input variables. In this paper, a probabilistic approach using Adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is proposed to estimate the LCC of repairable systems. The developed model could handle the uncertainties of input variables in the estimation of LCC. The numerical analysis shows that the acquisition and downtime cost could have a high effect towards the LCC compared to repair cost. The developed model could also provide more precise quantitative information for decision making process.