Long-Term LULC Monitoring in El Jadida, Morocco (1985–2020): A Machine Learning-Based Comparative Analysis

Abstract

Recent advancements in remote sensing and geospatial processing tools have ushered in a new era of mapping and monitoring landscape changes across various scales. This progress is critical for understanding and anticipating the underlying drivers of environmental change. In particular, large-scale Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) mapping has become an indispensable tool for territorial planning and monitoring. This study aims to map and evaluate LULC changes in the El Jadida region of Morocco between 1985 and 2020. Utilizing multispectral Landsat imagery, we applied and compared three supervised machine learning classification algorithms: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Neural Network (NNET). Model performance was assessed using statistical metrics, including overall accuracy, the Kappa coefficient, and the F1 score. The results indicate that the RF algorithm was the most effective, achieving an overall accuracy of 90.3% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.859, outperforming both NNET (81.3%; Kappa = 0.722) and SVM (80.2%; Kappa = 0.703). Analysis of explanatory variables underscored the decisive contribution of the NDWI, NDBI, and SWIR and thermal bands in discriminating land cover classes. The spatio-temporal analysis reveals significant urban expansion, primarily at the expense of agricultural land, while forested areas and water bodies remained relatively stable. This trend highlights the growing influence of anthropogenic pressure on landscape structure and underscores its implications for sustainable resource management and land use planning. The findings demonstrate the high efficacy of machine learning, particularly the RF algorithm, for accurate LULC mapping and change detection in the El Jadida region. This study provides a critical evidence base for regional planners to address the ongoing loss of agricultural land to urban expansion.