Estudo sobre a viabilidade do seguro receita: O caso da região oeste do paraná

Abstract

Since 2003 crop insurance programs have become the focus of agricultural policy in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of premium values has great importance. We address the revenue distribution issue and its implication by pricing a new Brazilian insurance contract, considering the skew-normal distribution of probability of revenue data from the western region of Paraná State (Brazil). Results show that insurers (empirical) rates tend to underestimate the risk by lower coverage levels (50% and 60%). At 70% of coverage level, the ER and SN rates seem the same on average. The estimated insured cash flows for 2006/2007 to 2010/2011crops, by coverage level, were positive for all seasons, indicating that agricultural operations with insurance can generate positive return for insurers, presenting as viable modality for insurance activity.