North Atlantic ocean wave climate change scenarios for the twenty-first century

Abstract

Using the observed relationships between sea level pressure (SLP) and significant wave height (SWH) as represented by regression models, climate change scenarios of SWH in the North Atlantic were constructed by means of redundancy analysis (for seasonal means and 90th percentiles of SWH) and nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis (for seasonal extreme SWH). SWH scenarios are constructed using output from a coupled climate model under three different forcing scenarios. Scenarios of future anomaly seasonal statistics of SWH are constructed using climate model projections of anomaly seasonal mean SLP while projections of seasonal extreme SWH are made using projections of seasonal mean SLP and seasonal SLP gradient index. The projected changes in SWH are assessed by means of a trend analysis. The northeast Atlantic is projected to have increases in both winter and fall seasonal means and extremes of SWH in the twenty-first century under all three forcing scenarios. These changes are generally accompanied by decreases in the midlatitudes of the North Atlantic and increases in the southwest North Atlantic. The rate and sign of the projected SWH change is not constant throughout the twenty-first century. In the Norwegian and North Seas, the projected SWH changes are characterized either by faster increases in the late decades than in the early decades, or by decreases in the early decades followed by increases, depending on the forcing scenario and the specific location. Using lower or higher rates of increase in greenhouse gases forcing generally leads to reduced or increased rates of change, respectively, in ocean wave heights. The sign and rate of future wave height changes in the North Sea in particular appear to be quite dependent on the forcing conditions. In general, global warming is associated with more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and strong cyclones, which leads to increases of wave heights in the northeast Atlantic.