The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on gaseous and solid air pollutants concentrations and emissions in the EU, with particular emphasis on Poland

Abstract

This article presents the research on the analysis of the impact of social isolation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on gaseous air pollutant concentrations. For this purpose, the authors presented (thermal maps) and analyzed the concentrations of selected gases such as NO2, CO, SO2, and PM2.5 particles during the strict quarantine period in Poland and other EU countries. Statistical analysis of the concentration level of these gases was performed. It was noticed that in Poland, Germany, and France, the concentrations of such gases as CO, NO2, and PM2.5 particles decreased, while in Italy and Spain, the tendency was the opposite. To verify whether the discovered dependencies are not a natural continuation of the trends shaping the given phenomenon, the time series of gas and PM2.5 particle emissions were analyzed. On this basis, the emission forecast up to 2023 was created, using the ARIMA class models. The obtained results allowed to construct five scenarios for the development of NO2, CO, SO2, and PM2.5 emissions until 2023, considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was stated that in the optimistic scenario, in 2023, a decrease in CO, NO2, and PM2.5 emissions could be achieved by maximums of 51%, 95%, and 28%, respectively.