OPTIMAL CONTROL AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 TRANSMISSION MODEL WITH THE PRESENCE OF WANING IMMUNITY IN WEST JAVA, INDONESIA

Abstract

In this paper, we developed optimal control and sensitivity analysis on the model of SEIQR COVID-19 transmission in the presence of waning immunity by adding the combination of Partical Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The most influental parameters to the model are the isolation rate, the infection rate and the recovery rate. We used daily cases of COVID-19 data in West Java, Indonesia to parameterize the infection rate and the recovery rate of the model. Optimal control is applied to the most sensitive parameter i.e. treatments. Treatment is effective to reduce the infected population.