Identification of rainfall thresholds for debris-flow occurrence through field monitoring data

Abstract

Defining rainfall thresholds for debris-flow initiation typically requires numerous past events, but many catchments lack sufficient historical records. This study introduces a method based on monitoring data, effective even with few observed debris flows. The approach relies on rainfall measurements and images from a simple, low-cost monitoring station. The method was developed in the Blè catchment, in the central Italian Alps. An algorithm based on a minimum inter-event time was used to automatically identify rainfall events. Throughout the monitoring period, which included both wet and dry conditions, stream’s hydrological regime was classified into four categories according to water level and sediment transport. Each rainfall event was linked to the catchment response, and an intensity–duration scatterplot was generated with events categorized accordingly. A threshold was defined using Linear Discriminant Analysis, treating events that triggered regime changes as positive and others as negative. This threshold offers insight into catchment behaviour and can be rigidly shifted upward to isolate only debris-flow-triggering events. Results show good discriminative ability and reliable performance in distinguishing regime-changing events. Finally, the study explores how the threshold is affected by the rain gauge’s location and by the method used to define rainfall events.