Multicriteria Hybrid Method - ROA, for the choice of generation of renewable sources: case study in shopping centers

Abstract

© 2017, Universidad de Tarapaca. All rights reserved. In the actual context in which commercial industries need to achieve greater competitiveness through their processes, efficiency is required in the management of electricity. Commercial buildings need solutions that are adequate to their environment and that would mean economic benefits. Given the case in which a commercial building self-generates electricity from renewable energy sources (RES), methods are required for allowing evaluation of alternative sources for generation, taking into account both the RES and methods characteristic uncertainties, which are involved in the process of technology selection. This paper proposes a hybrid method composed by technics of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), the Theory Real Option Analysis (ROA), the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), and the Binomial Method (BM), to select the most adequate technologies for electricity self-generation in Shopping Centers (SCs); it takes into account economic, environmental, technological and technical criteria, within the Colombian regulatory framework. The case study was based on real data for SCs in three different Colombian cities with different meteorological conditions. It was demonstrated that taken into account the real options, the photovoltaic technologies are viable projects to be implemented in the commercial sector. The study is a conceptual contribution and it proposes a methodology for improving the understanding of the complex process of decision making with its application in the evaluation of RES technologies, considering the incentives and the implicit real options in the regulatory framework of a region or a country.