Reconstructing the spread of measles in the 20th century: an epidemiological analysis of the period prior to the introduction of vaccination in Switzerland

Abstract

In the early 20th century, measles posed a much greater threat to children than it does today in the present age of effective vaccination. The aim of this study is to quantify historical measles-related mortality, morbidity, and case fatality rate in Switzerland to better understand the dynamics of the spread prior to the introduction of vaccination. Historical measles case and death records were transcribed and digitized for the first time, drawing on official federal periodicals. The data were visualized and subsequently subjected to time series and wavelet analyses. Between 1876 and 2022, a total of 19226 measles deaths were recorded in Switzerland. Children under five had the highest mortality rates. The 5-year average mortality rate peaked at 20.6 deaths per 100000 inhabitants at the beginning of the 20th century, subsequently falling to 0.7 by the 1940s. After the introduction of vaccination in the 1970s, mortality rates remained steadily below 0.01. A notable decrease in measles incidence was not observed until the 1960s. Time series analysis revealed annual cycles indicating seasonality, which were embedded in longer cycles, extending from 1.5 to 5 years. These findings provide insight into the pre-vaccine era and highlight the importance of high immunization and vaccination rates.