Cash dividends, return on equity and earnings persistence

Abstract

With reference to Ohlson’ model, we optimise earnings persistence model and express earnings persistence measure as a function of return on equity (R.O.E.), dividends payout ratio and other factors. Our theoretical model reveals that dividends payout ratio has little effect on the earnings persistence, while R.O.E. has a decisive effect on earnings persistence. Using quarterly earnings data of 872 listed firms in China over 2011–2020, we calculate the Revised Persistence value of earnings (RPer value) of our earnings persistence model, and find that the Rper value of our model have more explanatory power than that of Kormendi and Lipe’ model. Our study also suggest that quarterly earnings are useful and have information content. Both the theoretical model and empirical results of our research are of great significance to understand and support the implementation of semi-compulsory cash dividends rules in China.