The paradox of economic development and academic achievement: Evidence from PISA for 77 economies over 20 years

Abstract

This study examines the association between economic development and student achievement from a macro perspective. Using country-level panel data originally constructed from the OECD PISA for 77 economies over 20 years, cross-sectional analyses first confirm a substantially positive GDP-PISA association worldwide. However, longitudinal country-fixed effects models reveal that economic growth negatively predicts PISA scores, notably in high-income nations. This trend holds when replacing GDP with cumulative educational spending. These results indicate the coexistence of cross-sectionally positive and longitudinally negative relationships between macroeconomic conditions and academic performance. The potential mechanisms for this paradox include increased “distractions” to learning, shifting relative importance of skill types as in the declining prevalence of PISA-type cognitive ability, and exacerbated disparities among students with diverse social backgrounds. Considering that education systems and socioeconomic contexts arguably influence these dynamics, this paper calls for further investigations into the paradox of economic development and student achievement.