Cross-border workers in the Greater Region of Luxembourg and financial instability: a non-linear approach

Abstract

This article aims to study the interactions between cross-border workers from the Greater Region of Luxembourg (compared to resident workers) and financial instability. Luxembourg, located in the heart of the Greater Region, is a major international financial centre, one of the most significant aspects of which is the phenomenon of cross-border or commuting work. Interrelationships between financial fluctuations, the real economy and employment seem to operate especially in times of crisis or post-crisis, and to affect more particularly cross-border workers, whose recruitment is facilitated by service and financial intermediation companies. We propose to evaluate these interrelationships with an asymmetric non-linear ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributive Lags) staggered delay autoregressive model, which validates the predictive power of financial indicators to explain fluctuations in cross-border and resident workers.