The Role of Wave Breaking in the Development and Subseasonal Forecasts of the February 2021 Great Plains Cold Air Outbreak

Abstract

The February 2021 cold air outbreak (CAO) was a high-impact event in the South-Central Plains of the United States. This study examines important precursors to the event that likely impacted its predictability in subseasonal forecasts. We use reanalysis to show that the CAO was facilitated by two distinct wave breaks—an East Siberian Sea anticyclonic wave break and a Labrador Sea cyclonic wave break. We also use European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and National Center for Environmental Prediction subseasonal-to-seasonal models to investigate the impact of the wave breaks on the forecast skill of the event at a ∼2–3 weeks lead time. Ensemble members successfully simulating these features produce more negative temperature anomalies across the Great Plains, corresponding to better positioning of anomalous ridging. These results demonstrate that successfully simulating persistent anticyclones can improve central US extreme cold forecasts at long leads.