Estimating the Potential Public Health Value of BCG Revaccination

Abstract

An upcoming trial may provide further evidence that adolescent/ adult-targeted BCG revaccination prevents sustained Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, but its public health value depends on its impact on overall tuberculosis morbidity and mortality, which will remain unknown. Using previously calibrated models for India and South Africa, we simulated BCG revaccination assuming 45% prevention-of-infection efficacy, and we evaluated scenarios varying additional prevention-of-disease efficacy between +50% (reducing risk) and −50% (increasing risk). Given the assumed prevention-of-infection efficacy and range in prevention-of-disease efficacy, BCG revaccination may have a positive health impact and be cost-effective. This may be useful when considering future evaluations and implementation of adolescent/adult BCG revaccination.