Modelos de crecimiento, estacionariedad y rompimientos: Comparación entre las tendencias de crecimiento de las economías de la OCDE y las de los países menos desarrollados

Abstract

The aim of this article is to define whether the per capita Gross Domestic Products (PCGDP) of 145 economies have a unit root with breaks or are trend stationary with breaks during the period 1950-2000, and then establish a relation with growth models (endogenous and exogenous) and with changes in economic fundamentals or changes in technological progress that break trends (intercepts or slopes) under the guide of Lau (1997). Additionally, we identify changes in the long-term growth trends of these economies in a way similar to that described by Ben-David and Papell (1998) in their study of 74 countries, but now using the panel stationarity test with multiple breaks of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005). With this in mind, we define twelve different kinds of breaks, defined to compare average growth rate pre-break versus the average growth rate post break. The analysis examined whether the slowdown in member economies of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) occurred before, concurrent with or after the slowdown in the Least Developed Economies (LDE). We also look at some of the causes of the slowdowns and meltdowns in Latin American Economies (LAE), including some that were internal, some external, some common to various economies, and some peculiar to just one.