Population Forecasting Till 2050 Using Various Methods and Water Supply Strategy for Erbil City

Abstract

Population forecasting is a systematic procedure for predicting future demographic changes. To provide sufficient amount of water supply in the upcoming decades in Erbil City, prediction of population number using different methods is essential. Accordingly, this study was carried out to investigate population forecasting and then to identify alternative solution of potentially developing water supply in Erbil City. In the current research, the population from 1950 to 2020 used as the baseline and forecasting population till 2050. Six approaches were applied for predicting the rise in population throughout the past ten years (Arithmetic increase method, Incremental increase method, Geometric progression method, Uniform percentage method, Logistic curve method and Declining growth method). The uniform percentage method was the utmost correct method for population forecasting in Erbil City. The selected forecasted population in 2050 was 3,540,014 capita. The estimated average daily consumption per capita in Erbil city was estimated as 380 LPCD which resulted in 3,632,055 m3/day in 2050. The critical consideration for boosting pipeline length and diameter is projected population statistics. The intensity of total head assigned to the water tank and the capacity of the pump may also be specified as design specifications of the continent's water distribution system.