Incorporating persistent tree growth differences increases estimates of tropical timber yield

Abstract

Sustainable tropical forest management using selective logging, like any natural resource management system, requires reliable estimates of future yields. Commonly, timber yield predictions are calculated using the average of diameter growth rates in the population and thus ignore variation among trees. Using tree-ring analysis for three Amazonian timber species, we show that strong and persistent growth differences exist among individual trees. These differences substantially affect predictions of future timber yield. After incorporating realistic growth variation, we calculated timber yields that were 36-50% higher than those calculated using average growth rates. Even so, the regrowth of timber volume in a 20-year interval between logging events is low (18-24%) due to the old age of trees that are logged at first harvest. Improved yield estimates are important to evaluate the economic viability of sustainable forest management, a hotly debated issue in conservation circles. © The Ecological Society of America.