A simple electrical-circuit analogous phenomenological COVID-19 model valid for all observed pandemic phases

Abstract

In physics and engineering, circuit modeling together with simple element models has been used to study concurrent physical phenomena. By using simple calculations, the underlying mechanisms that determine certain patterns can be understood. Here, we present a simple mathematical model to describe the COVID-19 pandemic time evolution. The model accounts for three phases occurring at the same pandemic wave, which are influenced by different mechanisms represented by a linear, an exponential, and a power law term, corresponding to an early stage of the contagious spread, an unconstrained spread, and a power-law increase defined by the effectiveness of the social distancing, respectively. This approach is based on parallel and series natural phenomena occurring in electrical circuits. The generality of the present tool is demonstrated using empirical data of nine countries from different continents.