Nucleation and cascade features of earthquake mainshock statistically explored from foreshock seismicity

Abstract

The relation between the size of an earthquake mainshock preparation zone and the magnitude of the forthcoming mainshock is different between nucleation and domino-like cascade models. The former model indicates that magnitude is predictable before an earthquake's mainshock because the preparation zone is related to the rupture area. In contrast, the latter indicates that magnitude is substantially unpredictable because it is practically impossible to predict the size of final rupture, which likely consists of a sequence of smaller earthquakes. As this proposal is still controversial, we discuss both models statistically, comparing their spatial occurrence rates between foreshocks and aftershocks. Using earthquake catalogs from three regions, California, Japan, and Taiwan, we showed that the spatial occurrence rates of foreshocks and aftershocks displayed a similar behavior, although this feature did not vary between these regions. An interpretation of this result, which was based on statistical analyses, indicates that the nucleation model is dominant.