Decadal climate variability impacts on climate and crop yields

Abstract

This article examines the effects of ocean-related decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena on climate and the effects of both climate shifts and independent DCV events on crop yields. We address three DCV phenomena: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Tropical Atlantic Sea-Surface Temperature Gradient (TAG), and the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). We estimate the joint effect of these DCV phenomena on the mean, variance, and skewness of crop yield distributions. We found regionally differentiated impacts of DCV phenomena on growing degree days, precipitation, and extreme weather events, which in turn alter distributions of U.S. regional crop yields.