Aerosol-modulated heat stress in the present and future climate of India

Abstract

Heat stress is one of the leading natural causes of mortality in India. Aerosols can potentially impact heat stress by modulating the meteorological conditions via radiative feedback. However, a quantitative understanding of such an impact is lacking. Here, using a chemical transport model, Weather Research Forecasting model coupled with chemistry, we show that high aerosol loading in India was able to mask the heat stress (quantified by the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT)) by 0.3 °C-1.5 °C in 2010 with a regional heterogeneity across the major climate zones in India. However, the cooling effect of aerosol direct radiative forcing is partially compensated by an increase in humidity. To understand the potential impact of air quality improvement (i.e. reducing aerosol load) on heat stress in the future, WBGT was projected for 2030 under two contrasting aerosol emission pathways. We found that heat stress would increase by >0.75 °C in all the climate zones in India except in the montane zone under the RCP4.5 scenario with a bigger margin of increase in the mitigation emission pathway relative to the baseline emission pathway. On the contrary, under the RCP8.5 scenario, heat stress is projected to increase in limited regions, such as the tropical wet and dry, north-eastern part of the humid sub-tropical, tropical wet, and semi-arid climate zone in peninsular India. Our results demonstrate that aerosols modulate heat stress and, therefore, the heat stress projections in India and anywhere else with high aerosol loading should consider aerosol radiative feedback.