The Initial Estimation of Anthropogenic Heat Emission in Cairo, Depending on the Inventory Approach

Abstract

Cairo in Egypt is one of the megacities that suffer from the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon because of its high population, lack of greens, use of traditional materials and anthropogenic heat flux (AHF). The present study aimed to estimate AHF in Cairo for 2010, 2015 and 2020, depending on the energy inventory approach. The results showed that the average anthropogenic heat was 28.4 w/m2, 24.45 w/m2 and 21.96 w/m2 in 2010, 2015 and 2020, respectively. Vehicles were the main cause, followed by buildings, metabolism and industry. AHF per capita share was 1803.21 w/m2, 1514.7 w/m2 and 1313.45 w/m2 during the years of the study. Depending on Cairo's population data from CAMPAS and the estimated area, the hotspots were detected in Bāb ash-Sha'riyah and Al-Mūskī. The study further found that the average AHF in Cairo decreased due to GDP and the decline in per capita share and that if the consumed energy rates and gross domestic product (GDP) were within the global averages, AHF would have increased by 40%– 43%. Understanding AHF patterns and causal weights is crucial for urban planning to manage AHF hotspots, to ensure people's health by maximizing thermal comfort impacts, and to plan future interventions to reduce AHF..