A Novel Method of Modeling Grassland Wildfire Dynamics Based on Cellular Automata: A Case Study in Inner Mongolia, China

Abstract

Wildfires spread rapidly and cause considerable ecological and socioeconomic losses. Inner Mongolia is among the regions in China that suffer the most from wildfires. A simple, effective model that uses fewer parameters to simulate wildfire spread is crucial for rapid decision-making. This study presents a region-specific technological process that requires a few meteorological parameters and limited grassland vegetation data to predict fire spreading dynamics in Inner Mongolia, based on cellular automata that emphasize the numeric evaluation of both heat sinks and sources. The proposed method considers a case that occurred in 2021 near the East Ujimqin Banner border between China and Mongolia. Three hypothetical grassland wildfires were developed using GIS technology to test and demonstrate the proposed model. The simulation results suggest that the model agrees well with real-world experience and can facilitate real-time decision-making to enhance the effectiveness of firefighting, fire control, and simulation-based training for firefighters.