Scalable Prediction of Northern Corn Leaf Blight and Gray Leaf Spot Diseases to Predict Fungicide Spray Timing in Corn

Abstract

Managing foliar corn diseases like northern leaf blight (NLB) and gray leaf spot (GLS), which can occur rapidly and impact yield, requires proactive measures including early scouting and fungicides to mitigate these effects. Decision support tools, which use data from in-field monitors and predicted leaf wetness duration (LWD) intervals based on meteorological conditions, can help growers to anticipate and manage crop diseases effectively. Effective crop disease management programs integrate crop rotation, tillage practices, hybrid selection, and fungicides. However, growers often struggle with correctly timing fungicide applications, achieving only a 30–55% positive return on investment (ROI). This paper describes the development of a disease-warning and fungicide timing system, equally effective at predicting NLB and GLS with ~70% accuracy, that utilizes historical and forecast hourly weather data. This scalable recommendation system represents a valuable tool for proactive, practicable crop disease management, leveraging in-season weather data and advanced modeling techniques to guide fungicide applications, thereby improving profitability and reducing environmental impact. Extensive on-farm trials (>150) conducted between 2020 and 2023 have shown that the predicted fungicide timing out-yielded conventional grower timing by 5 bushels per acre (336 kg/ha) and the untreated check by 9 bushels per acre (605 kg/ha), providing a significantly improved ROI.