How do UK climate scenarios compare with recent observations?

Abstract

National climate scenarios are increasingly being used in long-term strategic planning and decision-making, but their projections have rarely been compared with observations. Recent changes in seasonal Central England temperature (CET) and England and Wales precipitation are compared with the projections of four generations of UK climate scenarios. It is shown that from 1961-1990 to 1978-2007 CET has been warming faster than represented in most of the scenario projections, particularly in summer. For precipitation, the scenarios have correctly represented the sign of the observed change for most of the period, the greatest ambiguity occurring in summer. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society.