Groundwater pollution and human health risk based on Monte Carlo simulation in a typical mining area in Northern Anhui Province, China

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to evaluate eight kinds of trace element pollutants in groundwater from a typical coal mine area, and carry out a corresponding health risk assessment for the local populace. To do this, 34 shallow groundwater (SG) samples and 18 mid-layer groundwater (MG) samples were collected from the Sulin mining area. To minimize the uncertainties in the health risk assessment, this paper relied on Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis. The results revealed that Sr and Mn contents exceeded their corresponding WHO (Guidelines for drinking water quality, 4th edn. Geneva, 2011) guidelines and Chinese groundwater standards (GB/T14848–2017), while the other analyzed trace elements remain below those threshold values. The calculated hazard quotient and hazard index values for adults from ingestion exposure to SG and MG were well below the threshold limit of 1. Probabilistic simulations further show that the total cancer risk value above the limit of 1 × 10−6 is 0% for SG and 29.39% for MG. Sensitivity analysis identified the Sr and Cr contents as the most relevant element variables affecting the probabilistic non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risk values in the model, respectively.