The incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability of forearm fractures: a systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021

Abstract

Purpose: Forearm fractures significantly impact global health and socioeconomic systems. This study examines forearm fracture burden across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Methods: Data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 were analyzed, including incidence (new cases occurring each year), prevalence (total existing cases at a given time), years lived with disability (YLDs, measuring time lived with reduced health due to injury), and causes categorized by injury mechanisms. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated to address demographic variability. Trends were stratified by region, age, sex, and injury etiology. Results: Globally, forearm fracture cases increased by 22.25% (from 26.1 to 31.9 million), while age-standardized incidence rates declined by 16.75% (to 402.35 per 100,000). Prevalence rose by 39.12% (from 4.5 to 6.2 million cases), with YLDs increasing by 42.22% (from 144,166 to 205,031). Regional variations were substantial: Oceania experienced the highest incidence surge (150%), whereas Central Europe saw a 32.17% decline. Sex-specific analysis revealed marked disparities: in the ≥75 age groups, female prevalence rates were approximately double those of males (>800 per 100,000 vs. ~300 per 100,000 for ages 95+). Among the older adult (≥60 years), females showed a steeper increase in YLD rates, reaching 30 per 100,000 in the 95 + age group compared with 15 per 100,000 in males. Falls were the predominant cause, particularly in Central/Eastern Europe (>500 per 100,000). Conclusion: Despite declining age-standardized rates, the absolute cases of forearm fractures is rising due to population aging and uneven healthcare access. Sex-specific prevention strategies are needed, emphasizing osteoporosis screening for postmenopausal women and workplace safety measures in regions with high mechanical-force injuries. Policymakers should prioritize resources for high-burden regions and implement targeted fall prevention programs.