Differential impact of physical distancing strategies on social contacts relevant for the spread of SARS-CoV-2: Evidence from a cross-national online survey, March-April 2020

Abstract

Objectives We investigate changes in social contact patterns following the gradual introduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their implications for infection transmission in the early phase of the pandemic. Design, setting and participants We conducted an online survey based on targeted Facebook advertising campaigns across eight countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, UK and USA), achieving a sample of 51 233 questionnaires in the period 13 March-12 April 2020. Poststratification weights based on census information were produced to correct for selection bias. Outcome measures Participants provided data on social contact numbers, adoption of protective behaviours and perceived level of threat. These data were combined to derive a weekly index of infection transmission, the net reproduction number Rt. Results Evidence from the USA and UK showed that the number of daily contacts mainly decreased after governments issued the first physical distancing guidelines. In mid-April, daily social contact numbers had decreased between 61% in Germany and 87% in Italy with respect to pre-COVID-19 levels, mostly due to a contraction in contacts outside the home. Such reductions, which were uniform across age groups, were compatible with an Rt equal or smaller than one in all countries, except Germany. This indicates lower levels of infection transmission, especially in a period of gradual increase in the adoption rate of the face mask outside the home. Conclusions We provided a comparable set of statistics on social contact patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic for eight high-income countries, disaggregated by week and other demographic factors, which could be leveraged by the scientific community for developing more realistic epidemic models of COVID-19.