Prediction Model of Land Cover Changes using the Cellular Automata – Markov Chain Affected by the BOCIMI Toll Road in Sukabumi Regency

Abstract

The development of a city is a manifestation of regional development. The impact of the development of a city is the occurrence of land cover changes and increase of the settlement areas. In 2002-2018 the vegetation land cover experienced a drastic decline and experienced land conversion into the settlement areas so that the area of settlement land cover increased. This study aims to analyze the spatial patterns of settlement land cover changes that are affected by the existence of BOCIMI Toll road in the Sukabumi Regency, West Java using the Cellular Automata - Markov Chain (CA-MC) method, and modeling for 2032 based on the driving factor (driving factor) applied to the model. CAMC is a simple model of a spatially distributed process in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Five variables used as driving factors, elevation, slope, distance from the river, distance from the road, distance from the toll gates and distance from the toll road. The results of the model show that there are some changes in land cover and an increase of the settlement area that is affected by the physical and infrastructure factors in Sukabumi Regency, it can be seen that the kappa value is 0.8352 or 83.52%. Further, it is necessary to analyze the Sukabumi Regency model and the Regional Spatial Plan (RTRW) to see the growth and direction of the settlement area in Sukabumi Regency.