Earthquake Risk Assessment from Insurance Perspective

Abstract

The assessment of earthquake and risk to a portfolio, in urban or regional scale, constitutes an important element in the mitigation of economic and social losses due to earthquakes, planning of immediate post-earthquake actions as well as for the development of earthquake insurance schemes. Earthquake loss and risk assessment methodologies consider and combine three main elements: earthquake hazard, fragility/vulnerability of assets and the inventory of assets exposed to hazard. Challenges exist in the characterization of the earthquake hazard as well as in the determination of the fragilities/vulnerabilities of the physical and social elements exposed to the hazard. The simulation of the spatially correlated fields of ground motion using empirical models of correlation between intensity measures is an important tool for hazard characterization. The uncertainties involved in these elements and especially the correlation in these uncertainties, are important to obtain the bounds of the expected risks and losses. This paper looks at the current practices in regional and urban earthquake risk assessment, discusses current issues and provides illustrative applications from Istanbul and Turkey.