Modeling the development of complex structures on the example of the maritime industry

Abstract

We have justified the prospects of the integrated development of cruise tourism in Ukraine and emphasized the necessity of a detailed study of the international experience of the leading tourist cruise destinations and its implementation in the national cruise industry. We have determined the parameters that influence the productivity of the enterprises and organizations involved in the creation of the cruise tourism product and affect their dynamics and competitiveness. The designed economic mathematical model for the effects of the strategic development of cruise tourism establishes the econometric dependence of the rate of direct revenues from cruise tourism on the economic, social and resource factors. This model can serve as a base for prognosing the development rate of cruise tourism in a lack of statistical information and justifying the major directions of economic policy in the tourism sector. The desired rate of the national cruise tourism is simulated on the basis of the parameters of the derived regression equation via the geometric interpretation of actual achievements of the Ukrainian cruise market and possible changes of these results if some of the factors (the rate of productivity, capital investments in the tourism sector, or the number of tourists who prefer cruises) vary. We have proved that the development of cruise tourism is mostly affected by the factors such as: the degree of the labor productivity that is directly related to the level of the employees' professional competence, and investments in the facilities of the port, tourism and related infrastructures, which requires a set of appropriate measures aimed at the development of the key components.