Forecasting CO2 Emissions in Malaysia Through ARIMA Modelling: Implications for Environmental Policy

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO2), a prominent constituent of greenhouse gases, has a vital impact on environmental pollution and the occurrence of global warming. Malaysia is categorised as the primary contributor to CO2 emissions among the ASEAN countries. Malaysia's total CO2 emissions had a significant increase, surging by a factor of nine, from 28 Mt in 1980 to 262.2 Mt in 2020. This indicates analysing the significance of CO2 emissions is an urgent concern in Malaysia. Therefore, the objective of this study is to forecasts the magnitude of CO2 emissions that will be discharged in Malaysia during a span of ten years, specifically from 2021 to 2030. This study utilises quantitative modelling, namely auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analysis, to assess the yearly time series data of CO2 emissions in Malaysia spanning from 1970 to 2020. The findings reveal that Malaysia's CO2 emissions are expected to continue rising in the next ten years, albeit with a gradual decline. This finding contributes to the body of knowledge and provides Malaysian policymakers with an opportunity to strengthen their current economic and environmental policies. This, in turn, could help create a safer environment and mitigate the negative impacts of CO2 emissions.