Tendência temporal da hanseníase em uma capital do Nordeste do Brasil: Epidemiologia e análise por pontos de inflexão, 2001 a 2012

Abstract

The objective of this study was to characterize epidemiological and temporal trends of leprosy in the city of Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil, from 2001 to 2012. A total of 9,658 new cases were reported. Their temporal trend was analyzed by the jointpoint regression model. The overall detection rate showed a declining trend, with annual percent change (APC) of -4.0 and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) -5.6 – -2.3. The detection rate in children under 15 years of age (APC = -1.4; 95%CI -5.4 – 2.8) and the detection rate of disability grade 2 (APC = -0.8; 95%CI -4.5 – 3.1) were stable. The proportion of female patients was descending (APC = -1,5; 95%CI -2.3 – -0.8). The proportion of multibacillary cases from 2005 to 2012 (APC = 1.4; 95%CI 0.6 – 2.3) and among them, lepromatous cases from 2004 to 2012 (APC = 6.0; 95%CI 3.4 – 8.6) were increasing. There was stability in the proportion of cases with grade 1 (APC = 1.4; 95%CI -0.9 – 3.7) and grade 2 disability (APC = 3.7; 95%CI -0.1 – 7.8). Despite the trend towards a reduction in detection, the disease transmission persists in the city. The data also suggest late diagnosis.