Carbon Dioxide Emission Forecasting Using BiLSTM Network Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Improved Black-Winged Kite Algorithm

Abstract

With the growing severity of global climate change, forecasting and managing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has become one of the critical tasks in addressing climate change. To improve the accuracy of CO2 emission forecasting, an innovative framework based on variational mode decomposition (VMD), improved black-winged kite algorithm (IBKA), and BiLSTM networks is proposed. This framework aims to address the challenges associated with predicting non-stationary data and optimizing model hyperparameters. Initially, experiments were conducted on 29 benchmark functions using the IBKA algorithm, demonstrating its superior performance in highly nonlinear and complex environments. Subsequently, the BiLSTM model optimized by IBKA was employed to predict CO2 emission trends across four major industries in China, confirming its enhanced prediction accuracy. Finally, a comparative analysis with other mainstream machine learning and deep learning models revealed that the BiLSTM model consistently achieved the best predictive performance across all industries. This research proposes an efficient and practical technical pathway for intelligent carbon emission prediction under the “dual-carbon” strategic goals, offering scientific support for policy formulation and the low-carbon transition.