Optimal Control Studies on Age Structured Modeling of COVID-19 in Presence of Saturated Medical Treatment of Holling Type III

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic has caused the most severe health problems to adults over 60 years of age, with particularly fatal consequences for those over 80. In this case, age-structured mathematical modeling could be useful to determine the spread of the disease and to develop a better control strategy for different age groups. In this study, we first propose an age-structured model considering two different age groups, the first group with population age below 30 years and the second with population age above 30 years, and discuss the stability of the equilibrium points and the sensitivity of the model parameters. In the second part of the study, we propose an optimal control problem to understand the age-specific role of treatment in controlling the spread of COVID -19 infection. From the stability analysis of the equilibrium points, it was found that the infection-free equilibrium point remains locally asymptotically stable when R0<1, and when R0 is greater than one, the infected equilibrium point remains locally asymptotically stable. The results of the optimal control study show that infection decreases with the implementation of an optimal treatment strategy, and that a combined treatment strategy considering treatment for both age groups is effective in keeping cumulative infection low in severe epidemics. Cumulative infection was found to increase with increasing saturation in medical treatment.