Ethnopolitical processes in the north caucasus: Dynamics and stabilizing factors

Abstract

The paper is based on the results of an expert survey conducted in 2016-2017 in all territories located in of the North Caucasian Federal District. A detailed analysis of the results of the study, obtained by the method of expert assessments (Delphi group) is presented. The hierarchy of risks and threats was worked out and specified. The major risk factors include: the persistency of ethno-clan structure, the deterioration of the socio-economic situation of a large part of the population and extremism, based on external factors. It is concluded that the ethnopolitical situation in the region is characterized by a combination of both positive and negative trends with a certain prevalence of stabilizing processes, but the regional situation can gain the reverse direction at any time.