Modeling and Structuring of Activity Scheduling Choices with Consideration of Intrazonal Tours: A Case Study of Motorcycle-Based Cities

Abstract

The travel demand prediction of an activity-based travel demand model (ABM) is based on a hierarchical structure of multiple choices related to an individual’s activity scheduling. This structure has, however, not been investigated for motorcycle-based cities. The coarseness of the traffic analysis zoning system combined with mixed land use results in a large proportion of intrazonal trips, which demands model enhancement in ABMs for these cities. Using large-scale household travel survey data from Ho Chi Minh City, a major motorcycle-based city in Vietnam, this study investigated the hierarchical structure for non-work activity scheduling, with consideration of three dimensions: (1) activity starting time, (2) travel mode, and (3) destination choices at the tour level with attention given to the impacts of intrazonal tours. Multinomial logit and nested logit models were adopted for model development. Results showed that work durations in the schedule strongly affected the scheduling of non-work activities. The estimated logsum parameters showed empirical evidence that hierarchy could be different for different activity types. Our findings also suggested a significant impact of intrazonal tours on the structuring and modeling of activity scheduling choices. The validation result indicated that our proposed models’ predictive capability is acceptable.