Electricity usage efficiency and electricity demand modeling in the case of Germany and the UK

Abstract

In this article, monthly and yearly electricity consumption predictions for the German power market were calculated using the multiple variable regression model. This model accounts for several factors that are often neglected when forecasting electricity demand in practice, in particular the role of the higher eciency of electricity usage from year to year. The analysis performed in this paper helps to explain why no growth in power consumption has been observed in Germany during the last decade. It shows that the electricity eciency usage dataset is a relevant input for the model, which mitigates the combined impact of other factors on the final electricity consumption. The electricity demand forecasting model presented in this article was built in the year 2013 with forecasts for the future years' electricity demand in Germany provided until 2020. These forecasts and related findings are also evaluated in this article.