Serial dependence in estimates of the monetary value of coins

Abstract

Perceptions of current stimuli are sometimes biased toward or away from past perceptions. This phenomenon is called serial dependence. However, it remains unclear whether serial dependence originates from lower-order perceptual processing, higher-order perceptual processing or cognitive processing. We examined the effects of serial dependence when participants estimated the total number of coins or the monetary value of coins displayed and found attractive effects in both tasks. The attractive effect observed in the value estimation task suggests that serial dependence occurs through higher-order cognitive processes during calculation. We also examined the effect of response history (i.e., the responses of participants on previous trials), with multiple regression analyses that simultaneously evaluated the effects of the previous stimuli and responses. In both number and value estimation tasks, the immediately prior response had an attractive effect on current responses, while the immediately prior stimuli exerted a repulsive effect. This pattern suggests that the attractive serial dependence found in the single regression analysis was due to the correlation between stimulus and response in the previous trials and that the effect of past stimuli per se may be an adaptation that increases sensitivity to current stimuli.