The spread of canine rabies in eastern Indonesia and risks to Australia

Abstract

Australia is historically free of canine rabies. Over the past few decades, the risk of a canine rabies incursion in northern Australia has increased. This change in risk profile is driven by the ongoing spread of canine rabies in the eastern islands of Indonesia, and now Timor Leste, and facilitated by regional development and commercial activities. Recognising this risk, there have been a range of activities conducted to inform surveillance and response, should an incursion occur. Northern Australia is unique in terms of risk, with numerous populations of free-roaming dogs and a complex interface between domestic dogs and wild dogs in a remote region with limited resources for population management. Disease spread modelling and risk assessment have been the primary tools used to inform risk and spread of a potential canine rabies incursion. Gaps include our knowledge of population demographics and the behaviour of susceptible species in this environment. In addition, knowledge of how and why canine rabies is spreading in Indonesia is vital for preparedness in northern Australia. Risk assessment informed surveillance and response is now more critical than ever to prevent canine rabies incursion and spread on the Australian mainland.