Whispers of dissent? Analyzing the rhetorical alignment of the elites with the authoritarian incumbent through parliamentary discourse in the Kazakhstani Senate

Abstract

Parliaments are often thought to be key arenas of elite signaling in authoritarian regimes. This paper examines the patterns of rhetorical alignment between individual elite members of parliament and the incumbent in a personalistic authoritarian regime using discourse data. I explore the possible determinants of rhetorical alignment, including the elites’ regional affiliations, policy discussion topics, leadership transitions, and crises. To measure rhetorical alignment, the paper applies LSS-based cosine similarity analysis to the statements of Kazakhstani senators alongside the incumbent’s speeches in 2019–2024. The regression analysis of the variation in rhetorical alignment between the incumbent and the senators suggests that while the 2022 leadership change, the COVID-19 crisis, and regional affiliation are not associated with high levels of alignment, some pockets of rhetorical contestation can be concealed within specific policy topics determined through structural topic modeling. To describe this phenomenon, the paper proposes the concept of “embedded rhetorical contestation.” Methodologically, the paper’s findings show the value of text-as-data approaches in analyzing parliamentary discourses for a better understanding of authoritarian regime dynamics and elite signaling.