Previsão de Vazão Afluente a um Reservatório Utilizando Previsão Quantitativa de Chuva

Abstract

In the present study, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) a macro-scale hydrological model was used to simulate the hydrology of Mahanadi river basin of India. The analysis was carried out for the impact of land use/ land cover (LULC) changes on stream flow pattern. Surface runoff was simulated for the year 1972, 1985 and 2003 to quantify the changes that have taken place due to change in LULC. An increase by 4.53% (3514.2 x 10 6 m 3) in the annual streamflow was estimated at Mundali outlet of the Mahanadi basin from 1972 to 2003. This may attributed due to decrease in forest cover by 5.71%. The validation of VIC model showed a close agreement between the observed and simulated runoff values with the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.821 and relative error of 0.085.