Scanning the aged to minimize missed injury: An Eastern Association for the Surgery of Trauma multicenter study

Abstract

BACKGROUND Despite the high incidence of blunt trauma in older adults, there is a lack of evidence-based guidance for computed tomography (CT) imaging in this population. We aimed to identify an algorithm to guide use of a pan-scan (head/cervical spine [C-spine]/torso) or a selective scan (head/C-spine ± torso). We hypothesized that a patient's initial history and examination could be used to guide imaging. METHODS We prospectively studied blunt trauma patients 65 years or older at 18 Level I/II trauma centers. Patients presenting >24 hours after injury or who died upon arrival were excluded. We collected history and physical elements and final injury diagnoses. Injury diagnoses were categorized into CT body regions of head/C-spine or Torso (chest, abdomen/pelvis, and thoracolumbar spine). Using machine learning and regression modeling as well as a priori clinical algorithms based, we tested various decision rules against our data set. Our priority was to identify a simple rule, which could be applied at the bedside, maximizing sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) to minimize missed injuries. RESULTS We enrolled 5,498 patients with 3,082 injuries. Nearly half (n = 2,587 [47.1%]) had an injury within the defined CT body regions. No rule to guide a pan-scan could be identified with suitable sensitivity/NPV for clinical use. A clinical algorithm to identify patients for pan-scan, using a combination of physical examination findings and specific high-risk criteria, was identified and had a sensitivity of 0.94 and NPV of 0.86. This rule would have identified injuries in all but 90 patients (1.6%) and would theoretically spare 11.9% (655) of blunt trauma patients a torso CT. CONCLUSION Our findings advocate for head/C-spine CT in all geriatric patients with the addition of torso CT in the setting of positive clinical findings and high-risk criteria. Prospective validation of this rule could lead to streamlined diagnostic care of this growing trauma population.