The impact of uncertainty concerning historical burned area estimates on forest management planning

Abstract

Uncertainty concerning landscape burn fraction estimates is seldom considered by forest managers when they determine the forest age class structure for flammable forest landscapes. Fire simulation models, each calibrated to be representative of one of two different portions of the province of Ontario, Canada, for which natural burn fractions have been estimated, were used to simulate annual area burned time series. Using these simulated data, confidence intervals were computed for given burn fractions over a given time horizon and used to determine a range in the amount of old forest area expected in those hypothetical forests to achieve ecosystem management objectives. Those old forest objectives were incorporated in a strategic forest management planning model to assess the impact on planned harvest volume for those forests given those burn fraction estimates. The natural burn fraction of the simulated forest representative of the northeastern Ontario study area was low, and consequently more old forest area was required to meet ecosystem management objectives, resulting in a lower average harvest volume in the simulated forest than is representative of northwestern Ontario for which a higher natural burn fraction was estimated and for which less old-growth forest area was required to achieve ecosystem management objectives. © 2013 by the Society of American Foresters.