Parametrization of bass diffusion model on COVID-19 first wave data

Abstract

The paper addresses the development of the system for the parameterization of the Bass Diffusion Model on Covid-19 Data. Continuous model developed by the principle of system dynamics is presented. The parameters of the model are tuned to fit the data with genetic algorithm in Powersim simulation tool. The validation is performed by standard simulation validation techniques. The input data used in the experiments were gathered by publically available databases. In particular, the data collected in Austria, France, Italy, South Korea, Slovenia and Swiss were considered in this study. The results have shown that the simple model with is capable of predicting the growth with S-shaped curve with high accuracy.