A Probabilistic Landscape Analysis Supporting the Management of Unplanned Ignitions at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks

Abstract

Fire management policy in the United States has evolved to encourage fire managers to address the full range of beneficial and detrimental effects of unplanned ignitions. We developed a probability-based fire risk and benefit simulation approach to support wildland fire management at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) in a manner consistent with the SEKI fire management plan. The approach integrated fire behavior, fire spread probability, and resource values to estimate the spatial distribution of expected fire net benefits for any ignition point in a landscape context. We simulated probabilistic fire footprints from each burnable cell and evaluated them for their potential to provide ecosystem benefits or to require risk mitigation. The expected net benefits of igniting a cell were stored in the ignition cell to provide a landscape-level perspective. We provide results that reflect the fire planning weather conditions of concern to demonstrate how the sensitivity of the results can reflect weather influences. The results provided a preprocessed "playbook" type reference guide to fire management. The results can be quickly accessed and intuitively interpreted and were used to promote interagency cooperation in managing the Tehipite fire on northern SEKI and on the Sierra National Forest. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.