Epidemiological characteristics for patients with traumatic brain injury and the nomogram model for poor prognosis: an 18-year hospital-based study

Abstract

Objective: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a global social, economic, and health challenge that is associated with premature death and long-term disability. In the context of rapid development of urbanization, the analysis of TBI rate and mortality trend could provide abundant diagnosis and treatment suggestions, which helps to form future reference on public health strategies. Methods: In this study, as one of major neurosurgical centers in China, we focused on the regime shift of TBI based on 18-year consecutive clinical data and evaluated the epidemiological features. In our current study, a total of 11,068 TBI patients were reviewed. Results: The major cause of TBI was road traffic injuries (44.%), while the main type of injury was cerebral contusion (n = 4,974 [44.94%]). Regarding to temporal changes, a decreasing trend in TBI incidence for patients under 44 years old was observed, while an increasing trend for those aged over 45 years was indicated. Incidences of RTI and assaults decreased, while ground level fall presented increasing incidences. The total number of deaths was 933 (8.43%), with a decreasing trend in overall mortality since 2011. Age, cause of injury, GCS at admission, Injury Severity Score, shock state at admission, trauma-related diagnoses and treatments were significantly associated with mortality. A predictive nomogram model for poor prognosis was developed based on patient's GOS scores at discharge. Conclusions: The trends and characteristics of TBI patients changed with rapid development of urbanization in the past 18 years. Further larger studies are warranted to verify its clinical suggestions.