Prognosis of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Transarterial Chemoembolization(MC-hccAI 001): Development and Validation of the ALFP Score

Abstract

Background: Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the recommended first-line treatment for intermediate-stage Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. However, predicting the survival of HCC patients receiving TACE remains challenging. Methods: In this retrospective study, we analyzed a total of 1805 HCC patients who received TACE. The patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 1264) and a validation set (n = 541). We examined various prognostic factors within the training set and developed a simple ALFP (ALBI grade, AFP, and Prothrombin time) score, which was subsequently validated using the independent validation set. Results: Our multivariate analysis revealed that baseline ALBI grade 2 or 3, AFP ≥ 100 ng/mL, and PT > 13.1 s were independent unfavorable prognostic factors for HCC patients receiving TACE (p < 0.05). Based on these findings, we constructed the ALFP score, which assigns 1 point each for ALBI grade 2 or 3, AFP ≥ 100 ng/mL, and PT > 13.1 s. The score has a range of 0 to 3, and higher scores are associated with poorer outcomes. The median overall survival (OS) varied significantly among different ALFP score groups, both in the training set and the validation set (p < 0.001). We further examined the ALFP score in subgroups based on tumor diameter and the number of intrahepatic lesions. In each subgroup, higher ALFP scores were consistently associated with lower OS (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Our study confirms the prognostic value of the ALFP score in predicting the survival of HCC patients undergoing TACE. The score incorporates easily obtainable baseline parameters and provides a simple and practical tool for risk stratification and treatment decision-making in HCC patients.